The Psychology of trading

In a previous video, I said that thinking was an edge.

The psychology of trading is a really interesting topic and something I've spent the best part of ten years exploring in depth.

I started doing this when I realised that I could present people an opportunity on a plate, yet they wouldn't take it. I also spotted that people often got themselves into a right mess in situations that never should have happened.

When I first started trading financial markets, I too was a complete mess and a completely hopeless short term trader. But with a lot of work and effort, I managed to completely change the way I think and become a really good risk-taker.

When I traded financial markets I made a right mess of things, but when I returned years later to Betfair trading and sports betting markets, I already knew where I had gone wrong and carefully rebuilt my attitude to many things and in particular to the subject of risk-taking.

In order to do this, I had to learn a lot about psychology and the psychology of trading. It's a key topic that many people completely miss.

So I would like to share some key thoughts on the Psychology of trading from roughly 30 years of experience.

As mentioned in the video here is the link to the Numberphile video: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rudzYPHuewc

#trading #psychology #mindset

Sorry for having to replace this video, the previous one was the wrong resolution!

I've explored many different things in sports markets with a view to getting a deeper insight into Betfair trading with a view to being slightly ahead of others.

Tennis was one of the first sports I looked at in depth as there were many books on the subject. But I was still left with the feeling that I needed to understand if there were any clues on court that would allow me to pick up on what a Tennis player was thinking.

If I could 'read their mind' then I could probably take advantage of that by thinking ahead of the action and taking a trading position before anybody else had spotted what was happening.

Here is one example of what I found.

This video is private.

I often find myself drawn back to San Francisco and other places because of what I find there.

Many people and places have been very influential in my life and while in San Francisco recently I stepped out for five minutes to do a quick video on why I find myself drawn back to these places time and time again.

It's a reflection on the things I do, the people I meet and the motivation it gives me to do new things, even if I don't know where they will lead me.

The same motivation is reflected in the way I trade and find new opportunities in a Betfair trading market.

So I thought it was worth five minutes of my time to explain the drive behind those things. I had to learn them the hard way.

When I was young I was a bit cautious and didn't take many risks. It was a mistake. But I eventually learnt it wasn't my fault and that, in reality, I had been victim to other peoples motives.

Eventually, I managed to break out of that mode of thinking and way of life and never looked back.

I've done so many amazing things and met so many amazing people but none of it would have happened if I hadn't been prepared to take a bit of risk and open some doors. Betfair trading and Bet Angel wouldn't have been created if I hadn't have done this.

That thinking led to understand investment, trading and trading Betfair better. But it has also positively influenced what I do and that's why I always talk positively. The lesson in the story, don't let others stifle your creativity and energy.

If they do, walk away from them because you are on the wrong path.

Pure, 'real' trading is about getting the balance behind profits and losses and that can be achieved in a number of ways.

In this video, we discuss this concept and the way you can be more effective by deciding what to trade and not but also realising what actually makes a good trade or not.

betfair trading, software

What makes the perfect trader? Peter Webb, Betangel discusses.

Over time I've figured out, there are two extremes that create problems for traders.

Understanding what these extremes are will help you become a better trader by avoiding the characteristics they exhibit.

Understanding this will help your trading strategy and enable you to use the software much more effectively. Thus you will become a professional trader.

Slightly bullish statement to start the video!

Finding great opportunities in the market can be achieved a number of ways. While a structural change could spell disaster for a particular edge. The longer I'm in the markets the more I realise an edge isn't just an equation, an algorithm, a strategy or tactic. It's as much a state of mind.

It took me some time to realise this. I started doing in naturally when I broke away from the corporate world and my desire to improve my understanding of psychology gave me deeper insight.

I realise now that in fact just thinking differently from others provides an additive edge to your activity. You can quantify this in the market by the way people behave, but I think there are elements that are not so easy to see, but equally describe persistence in an edge.

Bit of a ramble, but hopefully an interesting one for you.

Keep looking for opportunities and you will keep finding them. A lot of people never bother or prefer to pretend they don't exist.

Peter Webb - Bet Angel - Betfair trading

Despite being useless at maths at school when I started to try and solve the puzzle of how to price markets I realised I needed to brush up on my statistics knowledge and became fascinated by games of chance and probability.

I came across a technique for games of chance that allowed you to win more often than your opponent and converted it into a card game that performed even better.

There are lessons to be learnt with this game, on how to interpret random events. If you are clever enough you can exploit this in a Betfair, sports, or financial trading market, where market commentators or participants don't fully understand what they are seeing and act on it.

In this game, we have no control of the deck or the order in which the cards are drawn. We even give our opponent the opportunity to pick the opening sequence, so that we can't possibly influence that.

We then draw the cards till the end of the deck to see which sequence occurs more often.

Of course, the deck is shuffled and we have no influence over the order in which the cards come out. Yet we just keep on winning and winning.

We know, in an unlimited deck, that the chance of drowning a red or black is 50/50. We know the chance of any sequence occurring is random and can not be favourable if the cards are drawn randomly.

We don't use an unlimited deck here, but the randomness remains. There is a 50/50 chance, more or less, of a black or red.

So how do I keep on winning?

If you want to see the follow-up video to this one visit - https://youtu.be/RTi5ekVHIM8

#cardtrick #playingcards #win

What does it take to be a good trader?

I think there are three things, but that's another video that's current in production. But essentially, at a top level, there is no particular trait or style that suits one person over another.

There is tons of room in the market for everybody and, in fact, being too clever actually appears to be a hinderance.

I learnt a trick some time ago, through careful analysis about how to win a game that you are struggling to win. It turns out you can use the same thing if you are a trader and that's what I started doing when I was learning to trade Betfair. It's now part of any trading strategies I deploy in the market to develop winning strategies.

I learnt to play the loser's game and profit using Bet Angel's trading software

Peter Webb, Bet Angel

While English fans may be disappointed by their failure, again, at a major tournament. You can at least take some solace from the fact that new traders often suffer the same performances issues.

However, I and many other traders have overcome these issues whereas England are still struggling 50 years after the only time they lived up to expectations.

One of the areas of trading that has fascinated me for a few years now is the psychology of trading.

I started really digging down to understand how the psychology of trading worked when I showed somebody something that definitely worked, but they couldn't do it. I just couldn't understand why. All they needed to do was press a few buttons to order!

One of the things I discovered is that whether you trade or bet there is an imbalance between your emotion and logical side and that's often the cause of knowing what to do, but not being able to do it!

In every market I have ever traded I've started with nothing. No idea on how to trade it or how it works or is traded. But on each market I have traded I've managed to make a success of it, how?

Every market can be broken down into its components parts and understood in great detail and that's typically the effort required to fully understand how to trade any market.

Visit our blog for more wisdom – http://blog.betangel.com or download a free trial http://www.betangel.com/offer/

I came from a pretty ordinary background - My mum worked in a petrol station and my Dad was a carpenter. But they both were very strict, and that almost ruined my trading career before I even started.

That's what I discuss in this video.

Visit our blog for more wisdom – http://blog.betangel.com or download a free trial http://www.betangel.com/offer/

Human nature tends to lead people to hold beliefs and little can shift that. Any attempt to change that merely makes people defensive and determined to reinforce those views, even if it doesn't make any sense.

I now understand why the is, but I'm seeking to figure out how to change those thought processes as it's a key element of trading.

I can show you exactly what to do, but making somebody do it is another thing!