Cold winter evenings - When I'm not trading on BetfairI'm sure some of your can relate to the video.
When I was young I was taken to my first football match and I've been a regular visitor since, when I'm not trading.
It's often not about the wining, thought that's nice. But it's a number of other things that make me suffer the trip down the M3 time and time again.
EFL Cup final - Saints vs Man Utd - Peter's big day out!My once in four decades outing to Wembley took place last week.
I'm hoping it's not another four decades before the next one.
#southamptonfc #football #eflcup
How I Won The Lottery Using A Unique Selection and Entry ProcessYou see a lot of 'How to Win the Lottery' advice, but rarely from somebody that has actually done it!
I know it's a dream of many people to pick some winning lottery numbers and retire, but I actually set out to do that a number of years ago.
I've had a long history in betting markets and it all started way back in the 1980s when I set about winning the football pools.
Until 1994 the UK didn't have a national lottery as the government banned them over 100 years earlier.
But some enterprising chaps in Liverpool started up Littlewoods football pools in 1923 and distributed coupons at Manchester United's ground and, as they say, the rest is history.
Without a lottery game in the UK, I had to use the football pools as my first foray into betting markets. But this was useful as you had no predictive power in the Lottery. The lottery balls and winning numbers just appeared at random.
But on the football pools, I could predict the matches that were most likely to result in a draw and then I discovered how to arrange them in optimal covering combinations to ensure I would have a chance of winning the jackpot.
And that is exactly what happened!
To learn how I predict the outcomes of football matches, start with this video: -
#footballpools #lottery #winning
Want nailed on betting tips? Sleep on it!Want a nailed betting tips? I suggest you sleep on it!
The following is my unusual story of how Peter webb, early into my Betfair trading days, landed a decent sized bet, but in the most unusual manner.
This wasn't a typical sports betting or a variant of those Betfair trading strategies you see. This was a little odd!
When Southampton were relegated in 2005, I successfully predicted in January that Southampton would be relegated.
Not only that but also the goal scorer and the time of the goal in the match that saw Southampton relegated on the last day of the season.
All of this five months before it actually happened. To validate my prediction I posted my prediction before it happened only to see the BBC pick up on the story when it all came true.
It's the silliest bet I ever placed, but it won, of course!
Betfair trading - Know your football? Then I'll give you £10000 - Peter Webb - Bet AngelA few years ago I saw an article which was titled 'Know your football' asking people to predict the outcome of the premier league in return for £10,000.
I thought I would have a go at solving the problem and this video tells you what I found.
If you want to know where your football team will finish in the league then this is the way to guess roughly where they will finish.
It may also help you trade a position in the market if you are looking at a trading strategy on Betfair.
Football betting | Profiting before the season has even started!If you are into Football betting or trading, you are probably familiar with using
Before the start of the football, season teams shore up their squad with new purchases.
It's possible to trade this and profit from the markets that react to this news as it unfolds.
This video looks at how you can trade the Betfair football markets even before the season starts.
#football #betting #footballbetting
Peter Webb - Bet Angel - Follow up video on football transfersHere is a follow up on the broader video that I did on football transfers, pre-season trading and how a teams strength can determine their long-term league position.
Peter Webb - Bet Angel
Peter Webb - Bet Angel - Football trading - Predicting relegationAt the start of the season, we looked at where we thought teams would end up by the end of the season. This video reflects on that and what that tells us about how the season went.
Not sure why the video blurred at the start, pre-production error by the look of it. Too late to change it now!
Betfair football betting & trading : What would have made money this season?This video goes through where you could have made money during the premier league this season while football betting.
The graph shows whether the teams have performed to expectations or not and I will go through how you can use this to your advantage when trading football markets.
While this may look a little odd to traders at first there is a deeper meaning when you look at things this way.
Say you look at lay the draw, you know that teams that perform well away will contract the draw and therefore should be avoided. Home teams tend to be at shorter prices and therefore if they underperform at home then the draw will also contract more frequently and the opposite is true.
Think of a decent Betfair football trading strategy as an amplified betting strategy. If you can make it pay by betting you can REALLY make it pay by trading the same thing. Betfair trading effectively leverages your underlying strategy.
Betfair Trading: What key football stat do I use?Make sure you also read this blog post: -
It's often with amusement that I look at some of the soccer stats that roll of the media each Saturday.
99% of them are pretty useless in assessing what will happen in a match. I have spent years researching all different aspects of football but a couple of key stats stick out like a sore thumb at giving you a decent level of insight into a match before it has started.
It's important to note that football is very variable by nature, so every prediction has a large standard deviation. But over the long term that averages out. I'll probably explain this more as we move through the season.
You see a similar thing in other sports.
How to predict goals in a football matchFurther to another video on historical data and football, I thought we would start right at the beginning on footy to show you where you should start.
There is no such thing as a goal predictor when it comes to football matches but you can learn how to predict them.
The first place, as you will learn later, is to work out roughly how many goals you think will be scored.
For a FREE trial visit https://www.betangel.com/betfair/
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Bet Angel costs as little at £6 a month - Try Bet Angel for free - http://vid.io/xcbQ
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Football Betting tips - Profit from you favourite betting strategy by predicting football matchesFor more advice visit - www.betangelacademy.com
Whatever football betting strategy you are using, or if you are Betfair trading, you need to make a firm judgment on what is going to happen in a football match.
If you want to be a football betting expert, you need to know some fundamental things about a football match. The key factor is how many goals are going to be scored. Because once you have worked that out, you can use it to make a judgment on value from a sports betting perspective.
Any football trading strategy would need to know this as it forms the basis for whether you deploy one particular strategy or another and also whether a match exists that actually fits your criteria.
Curiously, probably because it's a little boring, no football betting tips ever contain this sort of information. But it's essential if you want to find value or the right market!
Football betting | The 'secret' formula that predicts the outcome of a football matchIn a previous video, which you can view here: -
We discussed coming up with a set of ratings for each football match, so if you were betting or Betfair trading on that football match you would have logical scientific basis on which to do so.
However, knowing that number didn't convert it into a percentage chance. If you are trying to place a value bet or trading this is useful as it will allow you to compare and contrast your favoured Betfair trading strategy or range that you wish to search for value.
The formula is quite simple but very effective and you can use it to reverse engineer match odds to work out how many goals a match is forecasting.
We discuss how I learn about it, how it is used and put a few caveats into the mix as well.
Football betting tips | Profit by making your own betting odds like a bookmakerFollowing on from our series in predicting football matches. Here is the latest video in the series.
In previous videos, we have worked out the chance of a goal being scored in a match and then used that to identify how many goals we thought were likely to be scored.
In this video, we break down the analysis to look at individual teams and produce odds by looking at historical data.
When you know this data you will be able to make a judgement on which betting or trading strategy you wish to use.
Links for items in this video: -
The web site I used to browse data is www.soccerstats.com
Data in the forum here -
Other videos in this series: -
Predicting how many goals - https://youtu.be/uKEZTq4guo8
Predicting related odds - https://youtu.be/bZLSfWZ3mG4
Predicting goals or no goals - https://youtu.be/V-PKglUoPt4
#betting #trading #football #betfair
Football betting tips | An easy way to predict betting odds on individual markets on BetfairIf you are betting on football or using some sort of Betfair trading strategy, then it's import to know what odds you are looking at predict.
So if you are interested in predicting football odds in individual markets in a football match, here is a quick and easy way to achieve that.
Not only that, but I'll also talk you through it and give you a spreadsheet. You can down the spreadsheet from this link: -
I published this spreadsheet quite a few years ago, but somebody came to be with a Betfair football trading strategy that used a link between two football markets to take a position on another.
I explained to him that this wasn't logical as they were all related and therefore I thought it was time to revisit this concept.
If you wonder how you could use this information then you should probably watch this video as well: -
I also mention another video which you can view here: -
The spreadsheet is on the forum on this thread, check to make sure it's the latest version: -
# betfairtrading #football #betting
Football betting tips - Predicting correct score oddsOn some previous videos, I've talked about Betfair trading but also about value betting/gambling. I've talked about how you can win on sports betting if you find the correct odds. See this video: -
The key message is that betting tips are fine but only if they find the right price! But one of the questions that come out of this is how do you get the correct odds to bet at that would win money in the longer term?
From a football betting Betfair trading perspective understanding how to price a market will help you anticipate what price the market should be when something fundamental happens or changes.
There is tons of help on the Bet Angel forum and loads of data to analyse in the same manner find in here: -
Using Betfair trading software such as Bet Angel and it's Excel link you could do this completely automatically.
#betting #football #sportsbetting
Peter Webb, Bet Angel - When is a goal likely to be scored?This is a follow-up to some of the other videos I've done on analysing a football match, but curiously I recorded this before the others.
I actually recorded this during Euro 2016, but didn't release it as it was in the 'wrong' order.
It is now in the correct order but refers to Euro 2016. But the message is still correct and relevant.
So I hope this will nudge your knowledge on just a little further.
Betfair football trading strategies - Who scores first?When trading football on Betfair it's easy to misinterpret exactly what could happen next.
Football is highly variable and that leads to some unusual stats.
If you are seeking value then you are looking to figure out what the price should be at the start of the match.
But if you are trading you will want to profit from whether a goal is or isn't scored at some point. That happens in a way that you may not be aware of.
In this video, we explore the gap between what most people think is the chance of a goal and what actually happens.